Export and import

A team of KB (macro) economists prepares analyses and predictions of key macroeconomic indicators for the Czech and Slovak economy for KB and its clients. Komerční banka’s GDP and inflation predictions received the Consensus Economics awards for the most accurate panellists participating in the Consensus Forecast survey in 2013 (Czech Republic) and 2014 (Slovakia).

Make Trade, Not War

• Czech economy decelerating but labour market remains tight: We have revised our growth outlook for this year down to 3.0%. The economy has hit its capacity constraints and productivity gains are smaller than we expected. Yet, the slowdown will not impact the labour market. It will remain tight, propelling strong wage growth.
• Inflation to remain above 2%: Inflation surged surprisingly in the second quarter. Its core dynamics have stabilised above 2%. This will also ensure that the headline does not dip below 2%.
• Weak koruna triggered major hawkish twist: A weaker koruna and surge in inflation have made the CNB’s May forecast obsolete. Given the surprise hike in June, we now expect two more this year. We also believe the CNB has revised its forecast. In our view, the rates trajectory has been moved significantly higher. 
• Koruna to appreciate later than expected: It is now expected to reach EUR/CZK25 in the middle of next year despite the widening interest rate differential. The koruna is paying for external risks and a strong US dollar.
• Strong issuance and higher Bund and CNB rates behind bond yield rise: CZGB yields look set to rise faster than in our previous forecast on the back of strong supply and a faster increase in Bund and CNB rates. Tighter monetary policy will also drive further yield curve flattening.

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• Market entry and company incorporation abroad
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