Export and import

A team of KB (macro) economists prepares analyses and predictions of key macroeconomic indicators for the Czech and Slovak economy for KB and its clients. Komerční banka’s GDP and inflation predictions received the Consensus Economics awards for the most accurate panellists participating in the Consensus Forecast survey in 2013 (Czech Republic) and 2014 (Slovakia).

Hitting the limits

Czech economy decelerating but inflationary pressures remain strong: Some sectors have been hitting production limits while parts of the economy lack support for quicker growth from the euro area. The slowdown is not being reflected in the labour market. There are more vacancies than job seekers, which will ensure that further wage growth propels inflation. 

Koruna set to appreciate gradually, CNB set to continue hiking rates: Ongoing excess of CZK liquidity will impede koruna’s appreciation, especially given elevated political uncertainty. We think the CNB will respond to strengthening inflationary pressure by hiking rates. The repo rate should climb to 2.5% by the end of the next year.   

Yield curve to bear flatten further: While the short end of the IRS curve should rise on the back of CNB tightening, the long end should remain under pressure from mounting foreign risks. We also expect CZGB yields to increase. A higher budget deficit in 2019 coupled with the need to refinance a large amount of CZGBs, should see their yields grow faster than IRS.

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